Bitcoin Starts October After a 44% Quarter and $2.65B of ETF Inflows

What happened

Bitcoin closed September with a 6.33% gain, its third straight green month, and began October trading near $83,536. The third quarter added $25,800 to the price, a 44% gain, while ETH advanced 71.2%. Both assets ended the quarter with their highest monthly closes of 2026.

The run began at a July 1 low under $58,000. Bitcoin ended July up 7.36%, added 25% in August and rose 6.33% in September, after reaching $87,000 on September 22 and 23. BTC is still down on a year-to-date basis.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.65 billion of net inflows during September and finished the month with $107.98 billion in net assets, equal to 6.42% of Bitcoin's market capitalisation. The products still recorded $148.69 million of net outflows on September 30.

Why it matters

October has been Bitcoin's greenest month since CoinGlass began tracking performance in 2013. The asset finished higher in 10 of 13 Octobers from 2013 through 2025, while 2014, 2018 and 2025 closed lower.

That record does not settle this month. Bitcoin hit an all-time high last October, then fell in a selloff that liquidated more than $19 billion within a day and led to a months-long decline.

Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CryptoPotato that October has a strong historical record for bitcoin, but she added that seasonality by itself is not an investment case. Her base case for the month is $78,000 to $95,000.

Zhang cited high interest rates, oil prices and renewed inflation pressure as the main headwinds, while ETF inflows, lower exchange balances and corporate buying support the bullish case. She said a break below $80,000 would invalidate the seasonal setup, and that holding $82,000 and turning $87,500 into support would put $95,000 in view.

What the data shows

• Bitcoin traded at $83,797 in a later reading, up 0.5% on the four-hour candle, up 0.60% over 24 hours and down 0.80% for the week. The four-hour strength index was 49.
• September 30 outflows included $125.58 million from Fidelity's FBTC, $13.63 million from Bitwise's BITB and $9.48 million from BlackRock's IBIT.
• Daily trading volume across the tracked funds was $2.36 billion, and net inflows since launch reached $57.50 billion by the end of September.
• CoinGape wrote that breaking $85,000 and $87,000 could bring Bitcoin closer to $90,000, with the price sitting below the $85,000 resistance.

Background

• Bitcoin bottomed on July 1 at under $58,000 and closed July with a 7.36% increase. August brought a 25% gain after BTC traded above $75,000.
• In mid-September the CLARITY Act failed in the US Senate and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and BTC dropped to $75,000 before recovering above $80,000.

What is still unclear

• CryptoQuant warned that the bull market might have slowed, even as other analysts said reclaimed resistance levels point to an ongoing bull market.
• The October 2 jobs report and October 14 inflation data land before the Federal Reserve's October 27, 28 meeting. Softer inflation could ease pressure for tighter policy, while strong wage growth or an inflation surprise could reinforce restrictive-rate expectations.
• CoinGape noted that the historical record supports optimism but cannot determine this month's closing level, and the Uptober and Downtober labels describe outcomes rather than causes.

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