Bitcoin price begins October near $85,000 as Uptober talk returns

What happened

Bitcoin began October with choppy trading near $85,000, meeting resistance above that level and finding support around $83,500. Market data showed the price sliding from $84,410 to $83,500 before a sudden rally to $84,300 at about 2:15 a.m. EST and a drop to just above $83,200 two hours later. By 1:45 p.m. EST, bitcoin was near $85,000, up about 1% over 24 hours.

The move followed personal consumption expenditures data released on Wednesday that came in better than expected. Bitcoin had closed September with net gains, its second straight positive month, and its year-to-date losses stood at 3%. PlanB, a pseudonymous quantitative analyst, said bitcoin remains "extremely undervalued."

Why it matters

The bank projected about $5 billion in net ETF inflows over the coming 12 months. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $102.7 million in net inflows on October 1, reversing a $148.7 million outflow the day before, after a cumulative $3.1 billion inflow streak.

Rate expectations also shifted. New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" to raise interest rates again, and CME FedWatch data showed October rate hike odds easing to around 44%. Options positioning leaned positive, with bitcoin calls at 60.88% of open interest and the October max-pain level on Deribit near $76,000.

What the data shows

Total bitcoin liquidations were capped near $35 million, a sharp drop from more than $80 million a day earlier, and longs made up 60% of them. Across the crypto market, liquidations reached $193 million, with long bets totaling nearly $117 million.

Coinpedia reported bitcoin rising more than 2.2% to around $86,150 and trading at $85,956.77, against a 1.9% gain for the wider crypto market. Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 of the past 13 Octobers, with an average gain of 18.71%, while 77,543 traders were liquidated as total liquidations reached $324.68 million.

Background

Bitcoin closed September with net gains for a second month in a row and has cut its year-to-date losses to 3%. That run has turned attention to October's seasonal record, the basis for the "Uptober" framing traders use.

The latest rally took the price toward the upper end of a range that has held since a move from $79,500. Traders are watching the recent swing high of $86,837.30, and the report noted that losing $85,000 could send bitcoin back toward the 83,000 area.

What is still unclear

• The two reports give different totals for crypto market liquidations over the same window: $193 million in one, and $324.68 million across 77,543 traders in the other.
• They also cite different bitcoin prices at the time of writing, about $83,719 in one report and $85,956.77 in the other.

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