BTC $76,987 
ETH $2,204 
MGLOEURO $111,813 
USDT $0.9985 
BNB $699.01 
XRP $1.21 
USDC $0.9992 
SOL $93.89 
TRX $0.3568 
FIGR_HELOC $1.03 Bitcoin · Explained
Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as two analysts argue the cycle low may be in
Galaxy's Alex Thorn says AI-worried hedge funds already sold, while Lyn Alden sees the bottom in but warns of a new technical risk.
Key takeaways
- Sellers already gone. Thorn argues bitcoin held near $80,000 because hedge funds that would react to AI jitters had already sold their spot ETF positions.
- Bottom, not bull market. Alden's base case is that the cycle low is in, but she says that does not imply an immediate rally and still expects range-bound trading.
- Filings ahead. New 13F disclosures for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due Nov. 16 and will show positioning three months later than Galaxy's data.
What happened
Bitcoin spent much of the past month trading in the low $80,000s while anxiety over the artificial-intelligence trade weighed on risk assets, and two well-known analysts are now making the case that the worst of the drawdown may be over. Their reasoning differs, but both describe a market in which the most motivated sellers have largely left.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said on Unchained in a live episode recorded Thursday that bitcoin's steadiness near $80,000 reflects who does, and does not, hold the asset. Investors rattled by AI-related volatility have already exited bitcoin, he said, so it is "not in their inventory to sell." Thorn added that some recent AI jitters had faded, citing strong SK hynix earnings, a rebound in South Korea's Kospi index, Oracle's investor day and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at its meeting on Wednesday.
Separately, macro investor Lyn Alden said on the Milk Road podcast that her base case is that bitcoin's bottom for this cycle "is in." Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, framed the call in probabilities rather than certainty and argued that bear markets typically end once everyone who wanted to sell has done so. She said she is "not necessarily arguing that we're in a bull market" and expects choppy trading until a fresh catalyst appears.
Price action has been consistent with that picture. According to Coinbase data cited by Unchained, bitcoin's lowest daily close over the past month was $80,009 on Oct. 26, with an intraday low of $79,107 on Oct. 24. It traded at $80,457 at 4:06 p.m. ET on Thursday.
First $84.2KLatest $78.5K-6.9% over the period
Points are daily observations, not closing prices.
Why it matters
The debate turns on supply rather than sentiment. If the selling was concentrated among short-horizon funds that have now cleared out, the downside from further AI headlines may be limited, but a bottom is not the same as a recovery. Alden said lighter selling pressure still leaves the market waiting for a reason to buy, and she described bitcoin's risk-reward as attractive for investors with multi-year horizons while cautioning that the near-term path is likely to stay uneven. Thorn, for his part, said Galaxy remains long-term bullish.
What the data shows
Across all 2,200 filers, combined spot bitcoin ETF holdings fell 14%, from the equivalent of 355,000 BTC as of Sept. 30, 2025, to 307,000 BTC by June 2026, according to Galaxy. That net decline of 48,000 BTC is smaller than the 68,000 BTC the nine identified sellers alone gave up, implying that other holders added exposure over the same period.
Background
Galaxy's argument draws on quarterly 13F filings, in which large managers disclose their spot bitcoin ETF positions. In an essay published Oct. 26 and sent to clients on Oct. 22, Thorn identified nine filers, among them Goldman Sachs Group, Millennium Management and Capula Management, that cut their holdings by between 29% and 100%, together shedding roughly 68,000 BTC. Galaxy characterized those sellers as trading-driven money: macro and multistrategy hedge funds, firms running the ETF-futures basis trade and bank trading desks. On the buying side it pointed to Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council it owns, and Morgan Stanley's wealth-management unit, which Thorn said tends to rebalance quarterly and hold for longer.
What to watch
New 13F filings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 are due Monday, Nov. 16, and Thorn noted that the largest filers typically wait until the final day, meaning the disclosures will describe positioning three months later than the data in Galaxy's essay. Alden flagged a different risk: attacks that use AI to break the cryptography securing digital assets without quantum computers. She described a serious compromise of the bitcoin network as a catastrophic tail risk that is hard to assign a probability to, though she considers bitcoin's relatively simple design less exposed than more complex projects, and she remains cautious on most of the market outside bitcoin, stablecoins and some tokenized assets.
Questions readers ask
Why has bitcoin held near $80,000?
Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital argues that the investors most alarmed by the AI trade do not own bitcoin, having already sold, so there was little left for them to dump. He also pointed to easing AI-related anxiety around technology earnings and the Fed's rate decision.
Has bitcoin's cycle low been reached?
Lyn Alden says her base case is that the bottom is in, but she presents that as a probability rather than a certainty and does not claim a bull market has started. She expects choppy conditions until a new catalyst brings buyers back.
What could shift the picture?
Galaxy points to 13F filings due Nov. 16 for a later read on ETF ownership, while Alden highlights AI-assisted attacks on cryptography as a risk she does not think is priced in.
