Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 as US GDP beats forecasts

What happened

Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 on Thursday after briefly trading below the level, as market participants digested fresh US economic data. Cointelegraph reported that BTC/USD reached $81,547 on Bitstamp, having fallen as low as $79,607 after the previous day's close. Crypto.news put the earlier trough at roughly $79,800.

The advance estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the economy growing at an annualized 3.4% between July and September, ahead of the 3.2% economists had expected and an improvement on the 2.2% recorded in the second quarter. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose at a 3.8% annualized pace, matching the prior quarter, while business investment, including continued spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and government expenditure also contributed.

Inflation readings released alongside the growth figures showed price pressures persisting. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, climbed 0.5% month-on-month in September after a 0.3% rise in August. Headline PCE inflation reached 3.6% year-on-year, up from 3.4%, while core PCE, which strips out food and energy, came in at 3.1%, in line with forecasts but slightly above August's 3.0%. On a monthly basis core prices rose 0.3%, as expected, and the annualized core PCE measure for the third quarter was 2.5%, above the 2.4% expected but down from 3.3% previously.

US equities opened lower despite the growth beat, with Cointelegraph attributing the weakness to Alphabet, which fell 12% after missing earnings and revenue expectations for the quarter.

Why it matters

For crypto traders, the combination of robust growth and inflation still running above target matters because it shapes expectations for monetary policy. Stronger activity gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep policy restrictive, and higher interest rates can make yield-bearing assets such as government bonds comparatively more appealing than Bitcoin, which pays no fixed yield. Crypto.news noted that Reuters-reported expectations now point to economists anticipating a rate increase in December. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, a decision that passed 10 votes to two, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack favouring a further quarter-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said economic activity was expanding at a strong pace while describing inflation as elevated, adding that domestic spending had been resilient.

What the data shows

On the price chart, Bitcoin's recovery ran into overhead resistance. Analyst Rekt Capital identified $81,400 as the nearest hurdle for buyers, noting that the asset was zig-zagging between weekly levels around $80,400 and $81,400 and would probably continue to do so into the weekly close. Crypto.news cited resistance at $81,400 followed by $82,000 to $82,500, with $84,202 back in focus on a sustained break higher. To the downside, $80,000 was described as immediate support, with $78,000 and $76,000 identified as further levels if selling resumed.

Flow data offered a mixed picture. SoSoValue figures cited by crypto.news showed US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $423.66 million over three consecutive trading sessions. Santiment data published before the Fed decision showed 14,942 BTC leaving centralized exchanges in a single day, the largest net withdrawal in five weeks, while transaction counts and active addresses remained below their average weekday levels for July through September.

Background

The moves followed a quarter-point rate increase in September and a subsequent pause at the October meeting. Cointelegraph noted that October has historically delivered average returns of about 26% for Bitcoin since 2010, though the monthly close this time was on track for a decline of 3.3%. The day's data also drew commentary on the wider economy: Chris Rupkey of Fwdbonds told CNBC that growth was powering ahead despite geopolitical risks and higher energy costs, and that real GDP had returned above a 3% run rate for the first time in a year.

What to watch

Attention now turns to whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold $81,400 by the weekly candle close, a level Rekt Capital framed as necessary for momentum to shift. Traders will also watch incoming economic releases for further signs of persistent inflation, and any guidance from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the December meeting, for clues on whether policy tightens again. On-chain activity and ETF flows are likely to remain part of the picture as well.

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