Bitcoin holds above $81,000 as Fed keeps rates steady in split vote

What happened

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. The decision passed 10-2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. Bitcoin Magazine reported that it is the first time since 1992 that a Fed governor and a regional bank president have dissented together on the same side of a vote.

Bitcoin's initial reaction was contained. The price climbed to about $81,700 in the minutes after the announcement, dropped below $80,500, and then recovered toward $81,000, according to Bitcoin Magazine, which put the price at $81,478 at the time of writing. CoinGape noted that bitcoin had moved above $81,000 once the hold, which traders had broadly expected, was confirmed.

The mood changed during Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Warsh said politics played no role in the decision, which landed days before the midterm elections, but he cited elevated inflation, higher oil prices linked to the US-Iran war and uncertainty about future policy, and declined to rule out further action, CoinGape reported. Traders responded by pushing the implied probability of a December rate increase to about 81%, according to CME FedWatch data.

The committee's statement also removed earlier language about when a hike might support a return to 2% inflation, substituting a line saying more information will guide the policy stance, and upgraded its description of growth to strong from solid.

Why it matters

A tightening path works against assets that benefited from years of cheap money, and bitcoin sits roughly a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000. Bitcoin Magazine reported that fed funds futures and the Fed's own dot plot lean toward an increase by December, with some pricing near three in four. For crypto, that suggests the easy-money backdrop traders had grown used to is not returning quickly.

The level drawing attention is $80,000, which has held as support in recent sessions; a clean break below it would expose the next floor, Bitcoin Magazine reported. CoinGape said more than $365 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours as a selloff in technology stocks added to the pressure, with bitcoin, ether and XRP among the assets affected.

What the data shows

Liquidation data from CoinGlass cited by CoinGape showed nearly $210 million in long positions and more than $150 million in shorts closed within 24 hours, with over 82,000 traders liquidated. Bitcoin accounted for $96 million of that total, and the largest single short liquidation was an ETH-USDT order worth $6.53 million on Binance.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million of net inflows on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, Bitcoin Magazine reported, even as other observers flagged large holders selling into strength. Bitcoin is down almost 7% in October, according to CoinGape, and the US 10-year Treasury yield moved slightly above 5% on Thursday while the dollar index climbed back toward 102.23.

Roughly 135,000 bitcoin options with a notional value of $10.8 billion are due to expire Friday on Deribit, CoinGape reported, with a put-call ratio of 0.52 and a max pain price of $78,000. Deribit data puts the chance of expiry above the $80,500 strike at less than 50%. Ether options worth $0.775 billion also expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 and a max pain price of $2,450 against a market price of $2,312.

Background

Warsh has said he does not favor forward guidance outside of a crisis, which leaves investors to interpret economic data themselves. The revised statement language and the upgraded growth assessment were read by some as a signal pointing toward tightening rather than easing.

The vote came ahead of elections on November 3. Bitcoin Magazine reported that the crypto industry spent about $176 million across more than 100 midterm races to build a bipartisan bloc in Congress, with Fairshake, the sector's largest super PAC, leading the effort. Crypto issues have not featured heavily on the campaign trail.

Investors are now waiting on US PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred gauge. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.3% month over month in September, with annual PCE inflation at 3.6%, up from 3.4% a month earlier, CoinGape reported.

What to watch

The next tests are the PCE release, Friday's options expiry, the November 3 vote and the December policy meeting. Bitcoin Magazine noted that the first response to Fed news is often modest and that direction frequently becomes clearer over the following day, while CoinGape reported that traders are anticipating a monthly close below $80,000.

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