Bitcoin up 43.1% in Q3 2026, its best quarter since 2024

What happened

Bitcoin closed the third quarter of 2026 with a gain of 43.1%, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Coinpedia reported the same figure and described it as the coin's best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024 and its third-best quarterly gain since US spot bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024.

CoinDesk put the quarterly advance at 42.7%, which it called the best showing since a 68.7% jump in the first quarter of 2024. On the first day of the fourth quarter, bitcoin traded just under $84,000 and ether just above $2,700.

Earlier in the week, BTC held around $83,453 with a 0.3% daily gain, after touching $85,128 on Sunday and slipping below $83,000 on Monday. It moved between $82,807 and $84,545 during the session and settled near $83,150. Liquidations approached $78 million, of which $44 million came from short positions.

Why it matters

The quarterly gain came alongside steady demand for US spot bitcoin ETFs. Those funds took in $2.4 billion in the week ending September 25, their largest weekly intake since October 2025. Year-to-date inflows reached $1.0 billion, a reversal from $5.0 billion of total outflows at the end of July.

Coinpedia tied part of the move to macro policy. It noted that bitcoin climbed 29.8% since August 19, the same stretch in which the US Treasury said it would increase buybacks of long-dated Treasuries.

Government bond yields stayed in focus. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note touched a 24-year high of 5.362% overnight before easing to 5.282% ahead of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect the US to have added 90,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%.

Analysts gave mixed readings. Utkarsh Ahuja of Moon Pursuit Capital pointed to elevated yields, dollar strength and geopolitical uncertainty behind the dip below $83,000, while Kyle Rodda of Capital.com said rising oil prices were constraining bitcoin's advance. Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch described the $82,000 zone as a probable support floor.

What the data shows

Two figures circulated for bitcoin's third-quarter return: 43.1% from The Kobeissi Letter and Coinpedia, and 42.7% from CoinDesk.

Ether rose 70.8% in the quarter, its best result since the 160.7% gain recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

Liquidations reached about $78 million, with $44 million from short positions. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.362% and later sat at 5.282%.

Background

US spot bitcoin ETFs have traded since January 2024, a period that includes the 68.7% bitcoin gain in the first quarter of 2024. Coinpedia said bitcoin's 29.8% rise since August 19 lined up with the Treasury's plan to boost buybacks of long-dated Treasuries.

Citi said it would extend its cryptocurrency services into Japanese and UAE markets.

What is still unclear

• The two quarterly figures differ. CoinDesk reported a 42.7% gain for bitcoin in the third quarter, while The Kobeissi Letter and Coinpedia reported 43.1%.
• It is not yet known how bitcoin will react to the September Nonfarm Payrolls report, which economists expect to show 90,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%.
• Analysts disagree on the main drag: oil prices, per Kyle Rodda, or yields, dollar strength and geopolitics, per Utkarsh Ahuja.

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