Bitwise raises 2036 bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million

What happened

Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-range bitcoin price projection to $1.6 million by 2036 in its 2027 capital-market assumptions. Bitcoin.com News reported the forecast was released on Oct. 28, while NewsBTC also covered the update. The base case puts bitcoin at $1,599,766 by 2036, up from a previous $1.3 million target that covered the decade through 2035. Bitwise said the increase reflects expanding markets bitcoin could serve and stronger confidence in its trajectory.

The projection implies 34.3% compound annual growth from a Sept. 30 reference price of $83,557, compared with 28.3% annualized growth in the earlier outlook. Bitcoin.com News said the base case is about 19 times the model's starting price. The update follows a roughly 53% decline from bitcoin's October 2025 high to its June 2026 low, a period that tested the adoption thesis.

Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise's head of research and a co-author of the report, acknowledged that bitcoin will likely remain volatile with sharp downturns, while saying that signs point to those swings weakening as institutional adoption deepens. NewsBTC reported that Bitwise still expects volatility to continue and argues bitcoin's four-year swings may moderate as ownership becomes more institutional. Both reports stress that the target is a scenario, not a traded price or a near-term catalyst.

Why it matters

Bitwise has an interest in institutional bitcoin adoption, and NewsBTC noted that the report is intended for long-horizon capital planning. The model matters because it tries to quantify how even small allocations from large institutional portfolios could affect demand. NewsBTC put the scale of institutional portfolios at around $147 trillion and said a 1% to 5% allocation could imply $1.5 trillion to $7 trillion of additional demand over time. Bitcoin.com News reported a similar range of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in purchases. Those are hypothetical allocations, not money already committed.

What the data shows

In the base case, bitcoin captures 25% of a combined gold-and-bitcoin market that Bitwise projects will grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. The model also assigns bitcoin 1% of a projected $303.5 trillion institutional investment market, along with smaller contributions from other uses. Bitwise expects rising government debt and currency debasement to support demand. Its scarcity calculation spreads estimated bitcoin value across the full 21 million supply limit, including coins yet to be mined and those assumed lost; circulating supply was put at 20.1 million. The bear case lands at $130,686, or 4.6% annualized growth, assuming a 2.5% share of the store-of-value market and zero penetration of other modeled categories. The bull case reaches $3,667,911, or 46% annualized growth, with a 50% store-of-value share and 5% of institutional investment assets, plus higher adoption in other markets.

Background

Bitwise's previous target was $1.3 million by 2035, with 28.3% annualized growth. The new forecast raises both the endpoint and the implied return. Bitcoin.com News reported that Bitwise spoke with 15 institutions, including pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds. Existing holders maintained their crypto allocations through a roughly 50% market decline between October 2025 and April 2026, and several bought more, according to the firm. That anecdotal evidence supports Bitwise's adoption case, though it is not a guarantee that other institutions will follow the same path.

What is still unclear

The two reports differ slightly on the top of the institutional allocation range: NewsBTC cites $7 trillion, while Bitcoin.com News cites $7.4 trillion. The gap is small relative to the scale of the forecast, but it illustrates how scenario outputs can shift with modeling choices. Neither report presents the allocations as commitments.

What to watch

Investors can track whether the evidence matches Bitwise's modeled adoption path through institutional ownership data, ETF flows and corporate treasury disclosures. NewsBTC suggested the relevant test is not whether bitcoin briefly moves toward the target but whether adoption trends support the assumptions. Bitwise also flagged risks including technological disruption such as quantum-security threats and regulatory reversals. Bitcoin.com News noted that sufficiently advanced quantum systems could threaten existing cryptography, and Bitwise also identified AI-assisted mathematical advances as a risk. The firm expects the network will need stronger cryptographic protections, with individual wallets potentially exposed if they fail to migrate.

Questions readers ask