Citi raises Strategy price target to $240 on higher Bitcoin forecast

What happened

The revision followed the bank's higher Bitcoin forecast: Citi now expects BTC to reach about $113,400 over the next 12 months, up roughly 39% from a prior $82,000 target.

The new target is 76.5% above Citi's previous $136 estimate. Strategy closed around $160.50 on Oct. 1, so a move to $240 would require roughly another 49.5% gain. Shares of Strategy advanced 2.7% during Friday's pre-market hours.

Why it matters

Citi divides the potential upside into two sources. It sees about 34% of MSTR's upside coming from Bitcoin appreciation, and another 16% from an assumption that Strategy's mNAV multiple will increase.

Strategy's stock has historically moved closely with Bitcoin because BTC is the core asset on its balance sheet. The company funds its treasury strategy with equity, preferred securities and debt. Citi's target therefore depends heavily on Bitcoin reaching the higher forecast and MSTR keeping a premium to its underlying BTC value.

What the data shows

Strategy's September 28 Form 8-K disclosed the purchase of 1,665 BTC during the week ending September 27 at an average of $85,681 per coin. Its aggregate Bitcoin position now totals 847,666 BTC, purchased for a cumulative $63.95 billion at an average price of $75,437 per Bitcoin. The filing also showed a USD Reserve balance near $5.02 billion alongside $1.00 billion in cash.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $5.7 billion through mid-July, and Citigroup anticipates another $5 billion in net inflows over the coming 12 months. Bitcoin has risen nearly 40% over the trailing three-month period and ether about 68%, leaving year-to-date declines of roughly 4% and 9%.

Background

Earlier in 2026, Citi had reduced its target to $136 from $260 after a more bearish Bitcoin outlook, so the new $240 target partly reverses that cut. The bank also raised its ether projection to $3,028 from $2,240. On regulation, the Senate declined to advance the Clarity Act, although later SEC announcements offset some negative sentiment.

Earlier in September the company bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million using cash on hand.

What is still unclear

• The two reports give different 12-month Bitcoin forecasts: one puts the figure at about $113,400, the other at $113,000.
• The reasoning behind the crypto forecast changes is attributed to increased crypto market activity and more stable inflow patterns into exchange-traded funds.

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