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ZEC $1,161 Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by tracking silver's rally, analyst says
On-chain metrics suggest a bear market bottom is in place, with new capital potentially driving prices much higher.
Key takeaways
- The silver comparison. Silver rose 593% over 3.4 years from its 2022 bottom, a pattern Bitcoin has tracked with about 90% correlation so far.
- Capital still has room. Bitcoin made up roughly 0.32% of all invested global capital, below its previous peak of just under 0.5%.
- On-chain signal. When long-term holder supply crosses above 80% of total supply, it has historically marked Bitcoin bear market lows.
What happened
Matt Crosby, director of research and analytics at LookIntoBitcoin, laid out a bullish case for Bitcoin that hinges on comparing it to silver's recent market performance. He is using silver's 593% rally over 3.4 years from a 2022 bottom as a template, adjusting it for Bitcoin's faster trading to suggest a 2.3-year timeline. If Bitcoin follows that pattern, the asset could reach about $400,000, he said.
Crosby points to on-chain metrics as evidence that conditions support another leg up. The realised cap HODL waves metric, which tracks the share of Bitcoin's price shaped by long-term holders, has climbed above 80%, a threshold that has always marked a bear market low in the past. He describes the current environment as "a true dictionary definition of seller exhaustion," with the price rising despite negative headlines and long-term holder supply starting to fall, signalling fresh capital is entering.
The analyst notes Bitcoin recently climbed from $64,000 to $84,000, a move he attributes to capital flowing out of other assets. Because long-term holders control much of the supply and rarely sell, each new dollar entering the market lifts Bitcoin's market value by about $6.20. A shift of money out of stock market bubbles or bonds could therefore send prices sharply higher, he suggests.
First $84.4KLatest $82.8K-2.0% over the period
Points are daily observations, not closing prices.
Why it matters
Bitcoin currently represents roughly 0.32% of all invested global capital, a level below its previous peak of just under 0.5%. Because global capital keeps growing, that difference leaves room for Bitcoin to rise significantly if it recaptures market share. Crosby's alternative price target, derived from a global capital model, lands near $390,000, reinforcing the $400,000 estimate, though he notes the projection is potentially optimistic.
Background
Bitcoin has tracked silver's price path with about 90% correlation so far, according to Crosby, providing a quantitative basis for the comparison beyond speculation.
Questions readers ask
How did the analyst arrive at the $400,000 target?
Crosby compared Bitcoin to silver, which rallied 593% over 3.4 years from its 2022 low. Adjusting for Bitcoin's faster trading, he shortened the timeline to 2.3 years. If Bitcoin repeats that percentage gain over the adjusted period, it reaches about $400,000.
What on-chain metric signals a market bottom is in place?
The realised cap HODL waves metric, which tracks how much of Bitcoin's price is shaped by long-term holders, has crossed above 80%. According to Crosby, this level has always marked a bear market low in the past.
Why does capital inflow matter so much for Bitcoin's price?
Long-term holders control most of the available supply and rarely sell. Because of this scarcity, each new dollar entering the market lifts Bitcoin's market value by roughly $6.20, making even small capital shifts potentially powerful for price movement.
