Kalshi's 15-min gold markets overtake Ether just weeks after launch

What happened

Kalshi's 15-minute gold markets traded 542 million contracts in September, ahead of the 318 million recorded on comparable Ether contracts, according to Predict Charts figures reported by Cointelegraph and crypto.news.

Gold's estimated fees for the month reached $5 million, compared with $2.6 million for the Ether contracts.

Bitcoin stayed the largest of the short-duration markets, generating an estimated $60.4 million in September fees.

Each gold contract asks whether gold will finish above or below a reference level when a 15-minute window closes, and each market settles to a set reference price.

The gold series was active by Aug. 7, and Kalshi uses Pyth pricing data to settle those markets.

Why it matters

The gold numbers sit inside a wider shift toward markets that settle every 15 minutes. InGame found that markets covering crypto, commodities and financials produced $20.4 million in fees over the seven days to Oct. 5, about 80% of Kalshi's non-sport fees for the period.

Those short markets also bring in more fees per unit of volume. InGame estimated they were 13% of Kalshi's trading volume that week but 20% of its fees.

InGame journalist Daniel O'Boyle wrote that Kalshi's fee formula depends on the odds of a contract, so fees take a bigger share of volume on contracts priced near 50/50 than on the biggest favorites or longshots.

Kalshi said its commodities volume hit $400 million within seven months, a figure it said was more than four times what its crypto markets had reached at the same stage.

Kalshi said crypto markets showed that new categories can scale from tens of millions to billions in monthly volume.

What the data shows

Gold: 542 million contracts in September against 318 million for Ether, a gap of roughly 70%.

Estimated September fees: $5 million for gold, $2.6 million for Ether and $60.4 million for Bitcoin.

Fifteen-minute markets: $20.4 million in fees in the seven days through Oct. 5, 80% of non-sport fees, 13% of volume and 20% of fees.

Commodities: $400 million in volume within seven months, with coverage that includes gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities.

Background

Kalshi's short-duration Ether contracts grew to 233 million contracts from 6.1 million between January and July 2026.

Short-duration crypto contracts began expanding in late 2025, with ETH activity rising sharply through 2026.

After launching in December, 15-minute Bitcoin markets became Kalshi's biggest market series outside parlays in July.

What is still unclear

• The fee figures are estimates derived from Kalshi trade records and should not be treated as company-reported revenue.

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