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ZEC $1,210 Morgan Stanley Updates Coinbase Share Forecast to $258 Before Earnings
The bank kept its Equal Weight rating on the crypto exchange as it prepares to report third-quarter results, even as other analysts adjusted their forecasts.
Key takeaways
- Forecast hiked by $8. Morgan Stanley raised its Coinbase share forecast by $8 to $258 on October 9, 2026.
- Q2 revenue fell 18.5%. Coinbase's second-quarter 2026 revenue dropped 18.5% year over year to $1.22 billion.
- Consensus rating is Hold. The average analyst forecast for Coinbase is $224.29, with a consensus Hold rating.
What happened
On October 9, 2026, Morgan Stanley updated its forecast for Coinbase Global shares to $258, up from its initial $250 estimate issued when it began covering the stock on September 10, 2026. The bank maintained its Equal Weight rating for the crypto exchange, a designation indicating it expects the stock to perform in line with its broader coverage universe. The revised forecast sits roughly 50% above Coinbase's previous closing price of $172.
The same day, Citizens JMP lowered its Coinbase forecast to $280 from $325, while keeping its Market Outperform rating. That revised forecast implies roughly 62.8% upside from the $172 closing price, and remains $22 higher than Morgan Stanley's updated estimate. Other recent analyst updates include Baird's raise to $205 from $130 with a Neutral rating, Barclays' increase to $149 from $95 with an Underweight rating, and Wells Fargo's new Equal Weight rating with a $200 forecast.
The analyst updates come ahead of Coinbase's upcoming third-quarter earnings report, following the company's second-quarter results released July 30, 2026. For that quarter, Coinbase reported revenue of $1.22 billion, an 18.5% year-over-year decline that fell short of the $1.29 billion analyst estimate. The company also posted an adjusted per-share loss of $1.36, worse than the expected $0.44 loss, alongside a $359.5 million net loss.
Why it matters
The split in analyst forecasts reflects ongoing debate over Coinbase's ability to grow revenue beyond its core spot cryptocurrency trading business. While the company's second-quarter subscription and services revenue hit $555 million, or 48% of total net revenue, consumer trading revenue fell 30.5% year over year to $452 million. Coinbase has expanded into derivatives, stablecoin services and other products to reduce reliance on volatile trading fees, but execution on these new lines remains a key focus for analysts.
Broader market headwinds have also pressured digital asset and financial technology stocks in recent months. Citizens JMP cited over $10 billion in financial-services ETF outflows as a source of stress, and noted that fintech and digital asset stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 despite strong second-quarter earnings for many firms. Coinbase's upcoming third-quarter results will be closely watched for signs that its diversification efforts are offsetting weaker spot trading activity.
What the data shows
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue: $1.22 billion, down 18.5% year over year
- Second-quarter net loss: $359.5 million
- Second-quarter transaction revenue: $599 million, consumer trading revenue: $452 million, down 30.5% year over year
- Second-quarter subscription and services revenue: $555 million, including $292 million from stablecoins, average USDC balances: $20 billion
- Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA: $207.8 million, crypto trading market share: 10.3%, up from 9.1% in the first quarter
Questions readers ask
What is Coinbase's average analyst rating?
As of October 9, 2026, the average analyst rating for Coinbase is Hold, with an average forecast of $224.29 per share. Among tracked analysts, there are 20 Buy ratings, 13 Hold ratings and 3 Sell ratings.
Why did Citizens JMP lower its Coinbase forecast?
Citizens JMP reduced its Coinbase forecast from $325 to $280, citing the execution still required for the company's expansion beyond cryptocurrency trading. The firm noted that more than 40% of Coinbase's revenue already comes from activities outside crypto trading.
What was Coinbase's second-quarter 2026 revenue?
Coinbase reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.22 billion, an 18.5% decline from the same quarter a year earlier. This missed the analyst estimate of $1.29 billion for the period.
