Trump rules out strikes on Iran before midterms as Bitcoin climbs

What happened

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 8 that Washington would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. In a Truth Social post, he said the U.S. was holding productive discussions with Tehran. The statement came less than a day after reports that the military was preparing strike options against Iran before the vote.

Bitcoin climbed back above $81,000 after the post, according to TradingView data cited in the reports. Oil prices retreated after Trump's remarks. PrimeXBT's Oct. 8 market report also recorded the recovery.

Trump also said the U.S. blockade would remain in force and repeated his position that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon. He claimed 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, with none entering or leaving Iran.

Why it matters

The pledge eased some pressure from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which had weighed on crypto markets. Bitcoin had been on a steady decline since the start of the week as Treasury yields and oil prices rose amid inflation concerns tied to Middle East uncertainty.

Traders raised their bets that the ceasefire would hold. Polymarket assigned a 60% chance to the ceasefire lasting through Nov. 15.

Iran has not delivered its formal reply. Its foreign minister said Tehran would respond to the U.S. proposal within the next few days.

What the data shows

The session was volatile. Bitcoin fell below $81,000 for the first time since Sep. 21 before it recovered. More than $480 million in crypto positions were liquidated within one hour, and long positions accounted for most of the losses, according to PrimeXBT.

Earlier pressure had already interrupted Bitcoin's September run. On Sep. 28, crypto.news reported a pullback below $84,000 after the prior week's advance above $87,000, as renewed uncertainty over Iran weighed on markets.

Background

Trump had earlier rejected an Iranian proposal. According to reporting at the time, it involved a seven-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a pause in fighting before talks on unresolved issues.

Reports described military preparations and internal discussions rather than a final decision. Ynetnews, citing Axios, said U.S. Central Command had been instructed several days earlier to complete preparations for a possible return to major combat operations, and Trump had made no final decision and no date had been set.

What is still unclear

• Whether strikes could resume after the midterms is not settled. The reports describe preparations and internal discussions rather than a final order.
• Whether the ceasefire holds through mid-November is still open. Polymarket traders put the chance at 60%.
• Iran has not yet given its formal response. Tehran's foreign minister said a reply would come within the next few days.

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