'Uptober' Starts Green as Bitcoin ETFs Draw $134 Million

What happened

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $134.4 million in net inflows across the first two trading days of October, per Decrypt's ETF tracker. The inflows followed a $148.7 million net outflow on September 30, which ended a nine-session streak of positive flows that began September 17.

The positive start aligns with "Uptober," a crypto nickname for October's historical track record of strong bitcoin returns. Over the past decade, bitcoin has averaged an 18% monthly gain in October, according to Algoz analyst Stephen Wundke.

The ETF inflows coincided with a broader market rally. Bitcoin rallied to $86,500 on October 4, up 2.07% on the day and 8.57% over the prior 30 days, while ether gained 11.05% over the same 30-day window.

Why it matters

Spot bitcoin ETFs are a core driver of bitcoin's recent price strength, as they let investors gain exposure to the asset via standard brokerage accounts without holding the asset directly. Year-to-date ETF inflows remain below $1 billion after heavy outflows earlier in 2026, so the recent positive flows signal renewed investor interest in the asset class.

The inflows also come amid easing monetary policy expectations. The September U.S. jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%, pushing CME FedWatch odds of an October interest rate hike down to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. Lower rate hike expectations tend to support risk assets like bitcoin.

What the data shows

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest spot bitcoin ETF, captured over $450 million in inflows during the full week ending October 4.

Bitcoin's price was recently $85,605, up close to 7% over a 30-day period, and the asset posted its best three-month stretch since 2024 in the third quarter of 2026. Cumulative net inflows across all spot bitcoin ETFs since launch total $58.1 billion, with total net assets of $101.1 billion.

Background

Bitcoin's 2026 rally traces back to August, when the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases, sparking the asset's best August performance in three years. The coin also benefited from the "debasement trade," where investors buy assets to hedge against currency devaluation as the U.S. dollar slid in value that month.

What is still unclear

• Market outlook for bitcoin's 2026 price trajectory remains split, with prediction market traders assigning 93% odds the asset will not reach a new all-time high this year, even as technical analysts flag the recent move above its 365-day moving average as a bull market indicator.

Questions readers ask