Vitalik Buterin warns AI could weaken crypto security within two years

What happened

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned that AI-accelerated maths could weaken lattice-based cryptography, including schemes considered quantum-resistant, within two years. In a post on X, he said AI mathematical advances could undermine not only quantum-vulnerable schemes like ECDSA but also lattice-based cryptography such as ML-DSA and FHE, which many view as post-quantum safe.

Buterin challenged the common assumption that elliptic curves are broken while hashes and lattices stay safe. He said there is a good chance the real-world security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math progress. He used RSA as an example, saying keys and signatures need to be nearly 400 bytes rather than 64 bytes.

He said Ethereum's lean roadmap has focused on a hash-only direction rather than lattices, with signature types such as WOTS and SPHINCS. Hash-based methods lack a mathematical structure that attackers can exploit, which is why they are seen as more resistant to AI-driven attacks.

Buterin said he does not recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. He advised using fresh addresses where possible, off-chain multisig confirmations, avoiding on-chain encrypted notes for privacy and larger parameters for lattice-based public key encryption. For multisigs, he said each signer should change keys after every operation.

Why it matters

The warning widens the list of cryptographic tools that projects may need to replace. Lattice schemes are often described as post-quantum safe, so a hit to lattices would affect plans that lean on them.

Regulators are already watching. Europol urged the crypto industry to prepare early for quantum computing threats and said wallets are the main point of exposure. The EU's NIS Cooperation Group called for a post-quantum strategy by the end of 2026, and the Ethereum Foundation aims to make Ethereum's main network fully quantum-resistant by 2029.

Buterin noted that public key encryption is harder, because long-standing results show it cannot be built from hashes alone.

What the data shows

Buterin put the RSA key and signature size at nearly 400 bytes, not 64 bytes.

He framed the AI math risk to lattices over a two-year window.

The EU's NIS Cooperation Group called for a post-quantum strategy by the end of 2026, while the Ethereum Foundation targets full quantum resistance for the main network by 2029.

What is still unclear

• Buterin described the lattice risk as a good chance of serious hits, not a certainty.
• He said he does not recommend anyone scramble to move funds to new wallets today, even as he urged the industry to cut exposure.
• Public key encryption cannot be built from hashes alone, so the hash-only direction covers signatures and proofs but not that area.

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