XRP could slide to $0.98 if whale selling continues, analyst says

What happened

XRP was trading at $1.29 in reports published Oct. 25, up 0.87% over 24 hours after another rejection near $1.40 and a dip below $1.30, Blockonomi reported. The outlet put 24-hour volume at $1,327,287,645 and the seven-day gain at 0.09%. With the token near a technical boundary, analysts are split on the next move.

The bearish case comes from Ali Martinez, identified as Ali Charts in Blockonomi's coverage. In a five-part X thread, he said XRP could reach $0.98 if large holders keep selling. Santiment data cited there shows wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP fell from 351 to 339 over several weeks. At the current price, Blockonomi said that range is worth roughly $12.9 million to $129 million per wallet. Exchange balances moved the other way: XRP on centralized platforms rose from 11.003 billion to about 11.05 billion, an increase of roughly 50 million tokens.

Martinez's technical marker is $1.26, the lower edge of a channel XRP has traded in since August. A decisive break could first take the price to $1.11, about 14% below the current level, and then to $0.98, about 22% below $1.26, according to the analysis. XRP remains above the support, roughly 2.4% higher than $1.26, so the $0.98 target is conditional.

CryptoPotato reported that EGRAG CRYPTO takes a different view. He sees a possible triple-bottom formation and calls the 44-week moving average the current battleground between bulls and bears. A weekly close above that average, in his reading, could signal a more decisive move. Both analysts are focused on the same support region but expect opposite outcomes.

Why it matters

The $1.26 level separates a still-intact channel from the bearish path Martinez outlined. The on-chain data adds context: fewer large wallets and more coins on exchanges can indicate that supply available to sell is increasing, though the reports do not establish that the wallet decline is purely distribution. Because the price break has not happened, $0.98 is a scenario rather than a confirmed trend. The debate also shows how technical levels and holder behavior are being weighed against a possible accumulation pattern.

What the data shows

Blockonomi reported XRP at $1.29, a 24-hour gain of 0.87%, volume of $1,327,287,645 and a seven-day gain of 0.09%. Santiment data cited by Martinez showed wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP falling from 351 to 339. Exchange-held XRP rose from 11.003 billion to around 11.05 billion, an increase of about 50 million tokens. Martinez put $1.11 about 14% below the current price and $0.98 about 22% below $1.26. The current price was about 2.4% above $1.26, according to Blockonomi.

Background

XRP has been under pressure after failing to hold above $1.30 and getting rejected at $1.40, CryptoPotato reported. The channel cited by Martinez dates to August, and $0.98 matches the August lows mentioned in that report. The bullish side centers on whether recent weakness is part of a bottoming process. EGRAG's focus on the 44-week moving average reflects a longer-term trend gauge, while Martinez relies on shorter-term on-chain shifts and the channel boundary. Blockonomi noted that the first two bearish conditions, fewer large-holder wallets and elevated exchange balances, are already visible, while the price break has not occurred.

What is still unclear

The reports leave several points unresolved. The data shows fewer large-holder wallets and higher exchange balances, but it does not show whether those whales are selling, moving coins for other reasons or being replaced by new holders. The $1.26 level has not broken, and the $0.98 target depends on that break. The reports also do not say how long the channel pattern would remain valid or whether the 44-week moving average will be tested on a weekly close.

What to watch

Reports identify several developments to watch: whether XRP makes a decisive break below $1.26, whether exchange balances keep rising or begin to fall, and whether the number of 10 million-to-100 million token wallets stabilizes. On the bullish side, the weekly close relative to the 44-week moving average is the level EGRAG is monitoring. Both outlets frame these as analytical scenarios, not certain outcomes.

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