Bitcoin rebounds after cooler PPI data, but daily losses persist

What happened

Bitcoin rebounded from an intraday low after U.S. October producer price inflation arrived below expectations, though the move did not erase losses for the day, according to Cointelegraph and CoinGape. The two outlets gave different snapshots of the price action. CoinGape said bitcoin climbed toward the $70,000 level from around $69,000 and traded near $69,800, still down more than 3%. Cointelegraph said it hovered near $68,700 after bouncing from a roughly 12-week low around $67,500 and was down about 4%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that PPI rose 0.3% month over month and 6.5% year over year in October. Cointelegraph said both readings were 0.1 percentage point below expectations, while CoinGape put expectations at 0.4% and 6.6%. The annual increase was the largest since November 2022, according to Cointelegraph. The BLS said final demand goods prices rose 0.5% and final demand services prices rose 0.2%. CoinGape added that core PPI matched expectations at 0.3% month over month and 5.0% year over year.

The inflation print did not produce a broad risk-asset rally. Cointelegraph reported that U.S. stocks slipped at the open, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.5%, as traders weighed developments around Nvidia after CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday. The report also said the PPI release prompted a slight shift in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations ahead of the December meeting.

Why it matters

PPI is a gauge of pipeline price pressures and can inform expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which in turn affects risk assets including bitcoin. The report showed inflation running below forecasts but still elevated on an annual basis, while equities remained weak. The market reaction was therefore mixed rather than a clear risk-on move. CoinGape said crypto traders pared back bets on potential Fed rate hikes. Cointelegraph, citing CME Group's FedWatch Tool, reported that the probability of a 25-basis-point hike rose to 89.7% from 85.4%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point move fell to 10.3% from 14.5%. Economist Robin Brooks described a quarter-point December hike as all but inevitable but argued against a larger increase, citing oil-price pressures and underlying inflation.

What the data shows

The reports cited these figures: October PPI up 0.3% month over month and 6.5% year over year; core PPI up 0.3% month over month and 5.0% year over year; final demand goods up 0.5%; final demand services up 0.2%; S&P 500 down 1.2%; Nasdaq Composite down 1.5%; December 25-basis-point hike odds at 89.7%; December 50-basis-point hike odds at 10.3%; and bitcoin down 17.7% in the fourth quarter and 11.2% month to date at the $68,700 level cited by Cointelegraph.

Background

CoinGape noted that earlier in the week, CPI inflation came in above expectations and raised forecasts of a possible 50-basis-point December Fed hike. It also pointed to other pressures on crypto markets, including a decline in stocks, particularly AI-related shares, and MSCI's decision to remove bitcoin treasury firm Strategy from its global indexes. On the technical side, Cointelegraph cited trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who warned that a Sunday weekly close below $73,000 would mark a support breakdown already seen in 2026. After each of the two previous breakdowns, bitcoin fell to around $60,000, the report said. At $68,700, Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin was down 17.7% in the fourth quarter and 11.2% month to date, with CoinGlass data showing the quarterly performance was its second worst on record.

What is still unclear

The supplied reports do not fully reconcile the intraday bitcoin price levels, likely because they captured different moments in the session. They also do not establish whether the PPI reading alone drove the rebound or whether other factors were at work. The extent to which MSCI's index decision and the Nvidia leadership change will affect crypto markets is likewise not clear from the reports.

What to watch

The December Federal Reserve meeting and any change in rate-hike expectations are key events to watch. Bitcoin's weekly close around the $73,000 level flagged by Rekt Capital, moves in equity and AI-linked stocks, and the aftermath of MSCI's removal of Strategy from its indexes are also points the reports identify as relevant.

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