Stablecoin supply shrinks $14.2B as bitcoin faces $70,000 test

What happened

The combined market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoins has fallen by $14.2 billion over a rolling 30-day period, according to Glassnode, the steepest contraction since June 2022. Cointelegraph reported the figure on Nov. 12, and CryptoSlate covered the same reading from Glassnode's Nov. 11 report. For comparison, the reports cite a $9.5 billion decline around July 1, when bitcoin slipped below $58,000, and a drop of nearly $30 billion in June 2022.

The stablecoin retreat has coincided with weaker bitcoin demand metrics. CryptoQuant's apparent demand indicator fell to negative 284,000 BTC over 30 days, its weakest reading since March 28, 2025, CryptoSlate reported. Separately, Tether's USDT lost $6.6 billion in market capitalization across 60 days, more than twice the $3.2 billion contraction recorded after FTX's collapse in December 2022, according to CryptoQuant research cited in the same report.

Other gauges were also negative. USDT traded marginally below its $1 peg, Cointelegraph reported, citing TradingView data. The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Coinbase's BTC/USD price with Binance's BTC/USDT price, stayed negative for 30 consecutive days and averaged roughly minus 0.14%, per CryptoQuant. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows across 20 trading sessions, CryptoSlate reported, with bitcoin near 11-week lows around $74,600 when the research was compiled.

Why it matters

Stablecoin supply is one of the simplest gauges of whether cash is entering or leaving crypto markets. Glassnode's interpretation is that a shrinking supply reflects holders redeeming tokens for dollars and pulling that cash out, leaving what it described as less fuel for a rally. A return to 30-day growth would, in the firm's view, be the first sign that new money is arriving.

The demand weakness matters most for investors who bought during the August and September rally. Glassnode data cited by CryptoSlate shows that only 35% of bitcoin held by investors who acquired it within the past 155 days remains in profit, compared with nearly all of that supply at September's high. Their combined cost basis sits near $75,600, with large clusters of coins bought between August and October at prices as high as $83,600. A recovery toward those levels could prompt exits at breakeven and add selling pressure.

What the data shows

CryptoQuant's profitability measure for coins held one to three months fell from 33% on Sept. 22 to minus 6%, a 39 percentage point swing. Those holders' average acquisition price is about $79,500, against a market price of roughly $74,600 when the research was published. Earlier corrections in this cycle often pushed the gauge to minus 12% before it stabilized; deeper drawdowns took it to minus 18% between July and September 2024, minus 19% in April 2025 and minus 23% in July 2026. At a $79,500 cost basis, a minus 12% margin would place bitcoin near $70,000, about 6% below CryptoQuant's reference price.

On the demand side, the 284,000 BTC contraction compares with negative readings of 309,000 BTC in March 2025 and 273,000 BTC in June 2026, both of which came before recoveries, according to CryptoSlate.

Background

The contraction reverses two years of expanding stablecoin liquidity. USDT's 60-day supply growth peaked at $20.6 billion in December 2024 and generally ranged between $10 billion and $16 billion through much of 2025, CryptoSlate reported. Bitcoin also rebounded from its June lows while the Coinbase Premium Index was mostly negative, which the report says shows the indicator alone did not capture the strength of that recovery. This time, the pullback in dollar liquidity is unfolding alongside persistent institutional selling and ETF outflows.

What is still unclear

Whether the current episode follows the earlier pattern is unresolved. Glassnode frames a return to 30-day stablecoin growth as the first evidence of fresh inflows, while CryptoSlate notes that losses among recent buyers could compound selling if a recovery fails to attract new capital. The reports attribute the redemptions to rotation out of stablecoins rather than to a single identified trigger.

What to watch

Markets will be watching the rolling 30-day stablecoin change for a return to growth, the Coinbase Premium Index for a move back above zero, and ETF flows for a break in outflows. The $70,000 area is the level implied by a minus 12% margin on coins bought near $79,500, and the one-to-three-month profitability gauge is the measure to track for signs of stabilization.

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