Bitcoin slides toward $74K as December Fed hike odds jump to 96%

What happened

Bitcoin moved lower toward $74,000 on Tuesday while US stock futures also softened, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would vote for a quarter-point rate increase at the central bank's December policy meeting. TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed BTC/USD reaching $74,080 on Bitstamp, a decline of 1.3% on the day.

Speaking at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point rise in the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee's Dec. 9 meeting even if the incoming inflation report showed an improvement over September. "While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC's policy rate at our December meeting," he said, according to both Cointelegraph and Bitcoinist. He also indicated that a substantially higher-than-expected inflation reading could justify stronger action.

The remarks prompted a rapid reassessment of policy expectations. CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point December hike rising from roughly 76% to 96% after the speech, with Bitcoinist noting some reports of instantaneous pricing near 97%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.4% ahead of the cash-market open, mirroring the softness in crypto markets.

Why it matters

Rate decisions matter for crypto because tighter monetary policy tends to work against risk assets. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no yield and pull liquidity out of financial markets, a dynamic that typically weighs on Bitcoin and equities alike. The immediate reaction across both crypto and US equity futures was consistent with that pattern, as Cointelegraph and Bitcoinist both noted. Bitcoinist added that the slide toward $74,000 came alongside recent exchange-traded fund outflows and generally subdued appetite for risk. If expectations of tighter policy persist, periods of sideways trading or further declines could be extended should liquidity conditions keep tightening; conversely, a softer inflation reading or more accommodative commentary from Fed officials could offer short-term relief.

What the data shows

The figures cited across the two reports sketch the scale of the move. Bitcoin changed hands near $74,080 on Bitstamp, down 1.3% for the day, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost roughly 0.4%. On the policy side, the implied probability of a quarter-point December increase climbed from about 76.3% to 96.3%, per CME Group data. The inflation backdrop includes September PCE growth of 0.5% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, against a forecast of 0.3% month-on-month for October CPI following September's 0.6% gain.

Background

Waller's comments followed a September inflation picture he described in blunt terms. "Let's just say it. September's inflation data were bad. There was no silver lining," he said, referring to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which the FOMC targets and which rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year. October's Consumer Price Index was scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, with economists expecting a 0.3% month-on-month increase, down from September's 0.6% rise that was driven in part by higher fuel costs. Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis CIB Americas, told CNBC that a reversion in shelter prices, primarily owners' equivalent rents and lodging away from home, plus stabilization in diesel prices should help ease price pressures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that Tuesday's release would include only month-on-month figures because the 2025 US government shutdown reduced data availability; CPI for October 2025 was not issued for the same reason, leaving annual comparisons unavailable.

What to watch

Traders now face two near-term inputs. The first is the October CPI release, which arrives with less detail than usual because only month-on-month statistics are being published. The second is any further guidance from Fed officials ahead of the Dec. 9 meeting, where markets currently treat a quarter-point increase as the base case. Because the data set is narrower than normal, price action may stay sensitive to both the inflation print and subsequent commentary in the weeks ahead.

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