Crypto markets face midterms, data and earnings-packed week

What happened

Crypto markets began the week before the U.S. midterm elections with major tokens under pressure, according to reports from CoinGape and Blockonomi. CoinGape put Bitcoin at about $77,700 and Ethereum at around $2,266 on November 1, with XRP near $1.25. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was $2.63 trillion, down 2.4% over 24 hours. Blockonomi reported that Bitcoin had steadied near $77,800 on Sunday after recovering from Friday selling that followed a security breach at Binance; the token had slipped toward $76,000 before buyers helped stabilize it.

CoinGape outlined a crowded calendar. Monday, November 2, was set to bring the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Apple earnings after the close and a speech by Federal Reserve official Goolsbee. On Tuesday, November 3, voters head to the polls in the midterm elections, with September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and AMD earnings also due. The report also cited a social media post warning about possible U.S. military strikes on Iran after the elections, while noting that Iran's foreign minister had set conditions for talks that could ease the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Later in the week, CoinGape said ADP employment and ISM Services PMI data were scheduled for Wednesday, November 4; Challenger layoffs, weekly jobless claims and productivity data for Thursday, November 5; and October nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, wage growth and consumer sentiment for Friday, November 6. Economists expect payroll growth of 65,000, unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly wages up 0.3%, according to the report. Blockonomi added that traders would watch ETF flows when U.S. markets reopened Monday and election results on Tuesday.

Why it matters

The midterms could change which party controls Congress, which CoinGape said may affect President Donald Trump's ability to pass his agenda and the direction of crypto regulation. The week's economic releases are also relevant to crypto because the reports said they could shape interest-rate expectations and valuations. At the same time, Blockonomi reported that ETF redemptions and the Binance breach had already weighed on sentiment, leaving traders sensitive to further negative developments. Geopolitical risk around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz adds another source of uncertainty for global financial markets, the reports said.

What the data shows

CoinGape reported Bitcoin near $77,700, Ethereum around $2,266 and XRP around $1.25 on November 1. It put the total crypto market cap at $2.63 trillion, a 24-hour decline of 2.4%. Blockonomi reported Bitcoin near $77,800 and said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, leaving roughly $202 million in net redemptions for the week. The Binance incident affected an estimated $6.3 billion in crypto assets. For the U.S. jobs report, the expected figures cited by CoinGape were 65,000 payroll additions, 4.2% unemployment and 0.3% average hourly wage growth. Blockonomi also cited historical post-midterm moves: Bitcoin gained 30.91% in the month after the 2010 midterms and 6.61% after 2014, but lost 47.13% after 2018 and 18.15% after 2022, according to analyst Ali Charts. The report said those figures describe past price action, not proof that elections caused the moves.

Background

All 435 House seats are up in the November 3 elections, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats, CoinGape reported. House members serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms, so about one-third of the Senate is being chosen. Control of Congress will determine whether Republicans or opposition Democrats hold the majority and could shape Trump's legislative prospects. Blockonomi noted that Bitcoin had struggled earlier in October to hold a rally above $87,000, and that the Binance breach affected an estimated $6.3 billion in crypto assets. The exchange said it would cover customer losses, while its investigation continued.

What is still unclear

Several outcomes remained unknown. The reports did not indicate which party would control the House or Senate, how Apple and AMD results would be received, or whether the expected economic data would alter rate expectations. CoinGape reported that Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had presented conditions for an agreement, including easing sanctions, fewer U.S. troops in the country, unfreezing assets, reinstating oil exemptions, recognition of an Iran-Oman shipping path and an end to local fighting. Whether Washington would accept those conditions was not reported. The possible military strikes mentioned in the cited social media post were also not confirmed.

What to watch

The reports pointed to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows when markets reopen Monday, the midterm results on Tuesday and the sequence of ISM, JOLTS, ADP, claims and payrolls data through Friday. Apple and AMD earnings, any Iran-related developments and the Strait of Hormuz situation are also on the watch list. Blockonomi cited technical levels that traders were monitoring: $78,800 to $80,100 as resistance, about $75,800 as Glassnode's short-term holder cost basis and $73,000 as a possible downside level if selling pressure increased.

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