Kalshi traders see bitcoin at $86,000 in November as ETF outflows weigh

What happened

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are betting that bitcoin will climb back to $86,000 before November ends, according to U.Today. The report said the asset had retested levels around $75,000 during recent volatility and then reclaimed $80,000, trading near $79,370 at the time. U.Today noted that $86,000 was last reached on Oct. 4 and that reaching it within the next 25 days would require a gain of roughly 8%.

A separate report from Blockonomi on Nov. 7 described a more cautious prediction-market signal. It said Kalshi Crypto traders were pricing bitcoin's November low near $70,000, about 8% below the $75,920.79 level CoinGecko showed for BTC on Nov. 6. The same report covered $411.9 million in net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Nov. 6, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for $403 million of the withdrawals, according to Farside Investors.

The two Kalshi readings focused on different contracts. U.Today reported on a bet that bitcoin would reclaim $86,000 by the end of the month, while Blockonomi reported on a contract tied to the month's low. Together, the reports show that prediction-market participants were weighing both upside and downside scenarios while ETF flows added pressure to the market.

Why it matters

ETF flows matter because spot bitcoin funds hold actual bitcoin to back their shares. Blockonomi noted that when investors redeem shares, fund managers generally sell corresponding bitcoin to meet requests, a process that can add selling pressure in the underlying market. The report also cautioned that a single day of flows cannot show whether investors are abandoning bitcoin or reallocating capital. The concentration of outflows in IBIT suggested that redemptions from one large fund drove much of the day's net loss, while Fidelity's FBTC attracted $42.8 million and partially offset the withdrawals.

What the data shows

Farside Investors data cited by Blockonomi showed the Nov. 6 spot bitcoin ETF flows: IBIT lost $403 million, FBTC gained $42.8 million, Bitwise's BITB lost $20.5 million, ARK 21Shares' ARKB lost $20.1 million and Grayscale's GBTC lost $11.1 million. Several other funds recorded zero flows. U.S. spot ether ETFs also saw $93.3 million in net outflows, led by $90.8 million leaving BlackRock's ETHA; Fidelity's FETH lost $1.7 million, Grayscale's ETHE lost $1.9 million and BlackRock's staked ETHB attracted about $1.1 million. U.Today's Nov. 5 snapshot put bitcoin at about $79,370, up 1.79% over 24 hours, while Blockonomi's Nov. 6 CoinGecko figure was $75,920.79, up 0.52% over 24 hours but down 1.50% over seven days.

Background

Bitcoin had been under pressure for weeks before the Kalshi bets drew attention. U.Today said the asset had spent more than a month below $86,000 and was coming off a prolonged downturn. The report pointed to seasonality as one reason traders remained hopeful: CryptoRank data cited by U.Today showed November as one of bitcoin's strongest months, with an average return of 38.6%. That historical figure was presented as context, not a guarantee of recovery. Blockonomi also cited analyst More Crypto Online, who identified $74,804 to $63,326 as a possible correction-ending zone but warned that entering it would not confirm a bottom. The analyst listed $75,580 as a range floor and $81,238 as a recovery level.

What to watch

Investors and analysts will watch whether spot bitcoin ETF flows stabilize after the Nov. 6 redemptions and whether bitcoin can hold the support levels cited in the reports. Blockonomi said bitcoin's ability to defend current support could determine whether selling pressure continues. The $81,238 level identified by More Crypto Online was described as a recovery threshold, while $75,580 was called a range floor. Kalshi contracts tied to both the $86,000 upside target and the $70,000 November low will also offer a running gauge of trader expectations.

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