Hilbert CIO warns Bitcoin could fall to $65K if AI losses force selling

What happened

Hilbert Group chief investment officer Russell Thompson has warned that Bitcoin could move toward $65,000 if a key support zone fails and losses in AI and semiconductor stocks force investors to raise cash. The comments, shared with Crypto.news on Nov. 9, were reported by Crypto.news and followed by Crypto Daily on Nov. 10. Thompson did not provide a time frame for the scenario.

At the time of his assessment, Crypto.news said Bitcoin was trading near $74,200. Thompson identified initial support at $72,800, near the middle of April's breakout range, with moving-average support just below at about $72,700 and a larger trend line around $71,900. He said losing that trend line would make $65,000 a concern, while $70,000 has little technical support beyond its round-number appeal.

The warning followed a recovery that did not hold. Crypto.news reported that Bitcoin rose above $80,000 on Nov. 5 after $74.6 million in U.S. spot ETF inflows in the prior session and heavy short liquidations, then returned to about $76,000 on Nov. 6 amid technology-stock losses and $430.2 million in ETF withdrawals during Thursday's session. Crypto Daily later described Bitcoin near $75,000, with the target about 13% below that level.

Why it matters

The call matters because it ties Bitcoin to stress in a different part of the market. Thompson's argument is that funds with losses in AI and chip stocks may face margin calls and sell assets that are easy to exit. Bitcoin trades around the clock and is liquid, so it can become a source of cash even when crypto-specific news is not the trigger. That makes the $65,000 warning a spillover scenario rather than a standalone crypto forecast.

It also lands against a weaker flow backdrop. Thompson estimated Bitcoin ETF withdrawals at $1.2 billion last week, and separate weekly coverage recorded $1.28 billion in withdrawals for Nov. 2-6, citing Farside Investors. Options traders are paying more for downside protection, according to Thompson, a sign that investors are positioning for risk rather than chasing a rebound.

What the data shows

Hilbert's liquidity gauges have weakened since early November. Its five-factor global liquidity model stood at 2.61 and its six-factor model at 3.02, down from 3.23 and 3.27 in the firm's Nov. 2 update, a decline of 0.62 and 0.25 points. Thompson describes readings below one as crisis liquidity and readings above nine as abundant liquidity.

In options, Thompson put five-delta put implied volatility at 51, compared with 38 for at-the-money options, a 13-point premium. Comparable calls carried only a one-point premium. Crypto Daily's chart reading also leaned defensive: Bitcoin was below its 50-day average near $79,000 and its 200-day average near $76,000, with the daily RSI near 37 and MACD pointing down. The nearest support on that chart was around $63,000.

The macro calendar adds another test. October CPI was scheduled for Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. September's official data showed headline consumer prices up 0.6% month over month and 3.7% annually, while core prices rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year. Thompson cited market pricing of a 77% probability of a rate hike and said two hikes between now and next year were the favored outcome.

Background

Thompson traces Bitcoin's earlier peak partly to money leaving crypto for chips, AI and technology stocks. Now that those trades are losing capital, he believes digital assets could eventually receive some of the money coming out, but only after the current deleveraging ends and markets settle. He has not ruled out a Bitcoin breakout before year-end, even though he expects difficult trading in the near term.

The inflation backdrop is part of his argument for renewed crypto investment. He said stronger U.S. employment and wage data had put the December Federal Reserve meeting into play, while inflation expectations remained well anchored and breakeven rates were lower. In his view, expectations about future inflation could restrain the Fed even when recent economic releases look strong.

What to watch

The immediate tests are whether AI-related losses actually force fund selling and whether Bitcoin holds the $71,900 trend line. A daily close back above the 200-day average, near $76,000, would ease some pressure and put the next ceiling near $80,000 in view, according to Crypto Daily. A break lower would focus attention on the $65,000 scenario and the thinner support around $63,000.

The Nov. 10 CPI release and the December Fed meeting are the scheduled macro events to watch. Thompson's view remains conditional: the deeper drop depends on forced selling materializing, while his expected return of capital to crypto depends on deleveraging passing and markets calming.

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