Bitcoin on track for first back-to-back annual losses

What happened

Bitcoin is on course to finish 2026 in the red, which would give it two consecutive losing calendar years for the first time in its roughly 18-year history, according to Decrypt and ZyCrypto. The asset ended 2025 down 6.34% and has fallen another 15.65% so far in 2026, Decrypt reported, trading near $73,850 on Nov. 10. It would need to close above its 2026 opening level of about $87,500 by Dec. 31 to avoid the unwanted record.

The reports frame the streak as a historical anomaly rather than a repeat of earlier crashes. Decrypt noted that every previous negative year for bitcoin was followed by a positive one, including after the severe declines of 2018 and 2022. ZyCrypto reported that Peter Schiff, a longtime bitcoin critic, has highlighted the same pattern and warned that 2027 could bring further trouble, while noting that the statistics he cited are accurate.

The comparison with past bear markets is central to both reports. Decrypt said bitcoin's 2018 slump was 73.56% and its 2022 decline was 64.27%, far deeper than the 6.34% drop in 2025. Combined with the roughly 16% fall in 2026, the two-year calendar decline is about 21% after compounding, a smaller loss than investors suffered in previous crypto winters.

Why it matters

The calendar-year record matters because it can obscure how much damage a market has actually suffered. Decrypt reported that bitcoin reached about $126,000 in October 2025 and later fell below $58,000 in 2026, a peak-to-trough decline of more than 50%. That is a much sharper move than the roughly 21% combined loss shown by the two annual returns. ZyCrypto cited a 2025 all-time high of $127.5k before the year ended near $87,500.

Decrypt said analysts have pointed to bitcoin's growing institutional investor base, spot exchange-traded funds and deeper liquidity as possible reasons for smaller bear-market drawdowns. Those structural changes may help explain why the current cycle looks different, the report said, but they have not prevented major price crashes. The distinction between the length of a losing streak and the severity of losses is therefore important.

History also cuts both ways. Decrypt noted that bitcoin gained roughly 92% in 2019 after its 2018 collapse and more than 155% in 2023 after its 2022 decline. A bad year has not necessarily meant a prolonged downturn, even as the current sequence tests a pattern that had held for most of bitcoin's history.

What the data shows

The figures reported by the two outlets are close but not identical. Decrypt said bitcoin fell 6.34% in 2025 and 15.65% in 2026 through Nov. 10, when it traded around $73,850. It put the 2026 opening price at roughly $87,500 and said bitcoin would need a gain of about 18.5% to finish the year positive. ZyCrypto described the 2025 loss as about 6.3% to 6.4% and the 2026 decline as more than 16%, with the price near $73,000.

Past drawdowns were much larger in annual terms. Decrypt cited a 73.56% fall in 2018 and a 64.27% fall in 2022, while ZyCrypto gave ranges of roughly 56% to 58% for 2014 and 73% to 74% for 2018. The rebound years were also large: about 92% in 2019 and more than 155% in 2023, according to Decrypt, and more than 120% in 2024. Decrypt also reported a peak near $126,000 in October 2025 and a drop below $58,000 in 2026, a decline exceeding 50% from the high.

Background

Bitcoin's annual returns have been mostly positive, with negative years standing out as isolated events. ZyCrypto listed 2014 as a decline of roughly 56% to 58%, 2018 as about 73% to 74%, and 2022 as about 64%, each followed by strong gains in 2015, 2019 and 2023 respectively. Decrypt put the 2018 and 2022 losses at 73.56% and 64.27%.

The most recent cycle included a strong 2024, when bitcoin rose more than 120%, according to Decrypt. In 2025 it set a record near $127,500 in October but gave back those gains by December and closed around $87,500. ZyCrypto reported that 2026 began near $86,000 and that the price was around $73,000 in November. Decrypt said about 50 days remained in 2026 for bitcoin to avoid the first back-to-back annual losses.

What to watch

The immediate question is whether bitcoin can recover to its 2026 opening level before the calendar closes. Decrypt said the asset had 50 days left and needed about an 18.5% gain from its Nov. 10 price to finish 2026 in positive territory. A close below that level would confirm the first back-to-back annual losses; a third consecutive decline in 2027 would extend the streak, but both reports treat that as hypothetical.

ZyCrypto reported that Schiff has warned of more trouble in 2027, while also noting that he is a longtime critic of bitcoin and has faced criticism for emphasizing weakness rather than recoveries. Decrypt said the market's institutional base, ETF access and liquidity may have changed the shape of drawdowns, though not eliminated them. Those factors are likely to remain part of the debate as the year ends.

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