Bitcoin slips near $73,500 after hot CPI lifts Fed hike bets

What happened

Bitcoin traded near $73,500 on Tuesday morning after October U.S. inflation came in above forecasts, Bitcoin Magazine reported, citing Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. The outlet said bitcoin was down about 1% over the prior day and roughly $32,000 below its year-earlier price.

The consumer price index rose 0.4% for the month, compared with the 0.3% economists expected, while core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Bitcoin had been near $74,300 shortly before the 8:30 a.m. ET release, then fell to about $73,400, briefly undercutting Monday's overnight low of $73,477 before steadying in the high-$73,000s. Crypto.news later reported bitcoin near $73,700, down nearly 2% over 24 hours, and said it briefly slipped below $73,000. The release did not include a comparable annual inflation rate because the 2025 government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting a full set of prices; Bank of America had estimated before the release that annual rates were near 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core.

Why it matters

The inflation readings revived concerns about Federal Reserve policy. Two- to five-year Treasury yields rose at least 10 basis points, and traders increased bets on a half-point increase when the Fed meets on Dec. 9. Before the data, markets had largely priced in a quarter-point move. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said hours earlier that he was leaning toward a December increase and would support more robust action if inflation ran hotter, adding that a 50 basis point move should be considered and that only 25 basis points would risk credibility.

Higher rates raise the cost of holding an asset that pays no yield, and that pressure had already weighed on bitcoin since Friday's strong jobs report. Stocks fell after the release, with the S&P 500 down 0.94%, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.51% and the Dow down 0.61%, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, Crypto.news reported. Liquidations reached $723.37 million, with about $570 million from longs, according to CoinGlass data cited by Crypto.news. Nearly 115,600 traders were liquidated, and bitcoin alone accounted for $203 million. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed $201 million on Monday, led by $213.2 million leaving BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, its seventh straight session of redemptions.

What the data shows

Within the CPI report, food prices rose 0.5%, energy rose 0.7%, gasoline gained 1.0% and housing costs increased 0.3%. Shelter costs accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase, and core CPI marked its third consecutive 0.3% gain. During November's first trading week, bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.28 billion in net withdrawals, with BlackRock's fund accounting for about $1.21 billion, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $22.1 million on Nov. 9. Analyst Ali Martinez reported that large holders reduced balances by more than 34,000 BTC over the preceding week, worth almost $2.6 billion; the figures track large-holder balances and do not show how much was sold on exchanges.

Technical indicators remained weak, with the Relative Strength Index at 33.95, below its moving average of 37.47 and near the oversold threshold of 30. The MACD was negative at -1,892.55, below its signal line of -1,511.88. Immediate support sat around $73,200, with a swing low at $72,689. A recovery would need to clear $74,005-$74,316 before $75,000, with $78,000 as the next reference. Analysts flagged $73,000; a daily close below that level was seen as opening the way toward $70,000, while reclaiming $80,000 would point to stronger demand.

Background

Bitcoin had drifted lower from a peak above $87,000 in early October as AI-related jitters weighed on Wall Street and ETF buyers stepped back. It was soft before the CPI release, losing about 1.4% from midnight UTC even as South Korea's Kospi rose 4.39% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.87%. Oil kept falling after President Donald Trump called fresh strikes on Iran highly unlikely, with West Texas Intermediate near $84 a barrel, its lowest since late August, and gold fell just over 1% to below $4,100 an ounce. Stock futures were mixed before the release: Dow futures rose 156 points, or 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.4%. Ether fell about 1.4% to near $2,100 overnight, and U.S. spot ether ETFs lost $184.6 million on Monday.

What is still unclear

The two reports captured different moments: Bitcoin Magazine put bitcoin near $73,500 on Tuesday morning, while Crypto.news described a nearly 2% 24-hour decline to about $73,700 a day later. They also cited different intraday lows, with one report noting about $73,400 and the other saying bitcoin briefly slipped below $73,000. No annual CPI comparison was available, and Bank of America's estimates were made before the release. Large-holder balance data also does not establish exchange sales.

What to watch

Producer price data is due Friday, Fed October meeting minutes are scheduled for Nov. 18, and the Fed meets Dec. 9. Traders will also watch ETF flows, large-holder balances and the $73,000 and $72,700 support area; $75,000 and $80,000 remain recovery references. One analyst described an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, but the report noted it was an interpretation rather than a confirmed reversal.

Questions readers ask