Bitcoin tests $74K support after slipping below $75K

What happened

Bitcoin has lost the $75,000 level that contained prices earlier in the week and is now trading near $73,800, with a 24-hour low around $73,570. Crypto Daily reported that BTC spent Thursday through Sunday in a tight range above $75,000 before falling through the support on Sunday and bouncing from roughly $74,000. The Crypto Basic said bitcoin closed Monday at $75,253 and then slipped below $74,891 on shorter timeframes, while Coinpedia put the price at about $73,941.

The $74,000 area has become the first test for buyers. The Crypto Basic described it as a long-term support zone and drew a comparison with March 2023, when bitcoin pulled back to a rising long-term moving average after an earlier breakout and then resumed its advance. Coinpedia said the recovery from the $59,000-$60,000 region to $88,000 had run out of momentum, leaving open whether the rebound is finished or merely pausing.

Forecasts diverge from that point. Crypto Daily said the short-term chart has produced lower highs and lower lows since September and warned that further weakness could take bitcoin toward $69,000. Coinpedia outlined an Elliott Wave scenario in which a Wave B retest could reach $65,813, with $59,270 below that. The Crypto Basic said a sustained break under the recent $73,400-$73,600 lows would undermine the immediate rebound attempt.

Why it matters

The $74,000 level is more than a round number. Crypto Daily said it sits at the top of the eight-month bull flag formed in 2024, making it a reference point on higher timeframes. The Crypto Basic noted that bitcoin remains below its falling 20-day EMA at $78,106 and 50-day EMA at $79,232, so the short-term trend has not turned bullish. For the 2023 comparison to gain credibility, the report said BTC would first need to recover roughly $78,000-$80,000. Holding $74,000 keeps that historical scenario alive; losing it would move attention to lower supports.

What the data shows

Coinpedia's liquidation map showed about $6.4 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage above the market and roughly $1.5 billion in long liquidation leverage below it. The largest short clusters were placed around $76,300 to $82,200. Coinpedia cautioned that the imbalance does not guarantee a rally, because buyers still need to push prices into those levels, while a decline could trigger long liquidations. On momentum, the report said the MACD was approaching a bearish crossover, the DMI showed sellers slightly ahead with -DI at 21.82 versus +DI at 18.28, and an ADX of 18.50 pointed to a weak directional trend. Crypto Daily said the daily chart was nearing the 200-day SMA and that candle bodies were holding above a descending trendline, with the bull market trendline near $66,000.

Background

The 2023 episode is the reference point for The Crypto Basic's comparison. Bitcoin fell to about $19,628 on March 10, 2023, then reached $27,788 by March 17 and climbed above $30,000 in April. Measured from the March low to the April 11 high near $30,550, the move was roughly 55%. The report stressed that the key feature was the defense of the rising long-term moving average after an earlier break above it, not the percentage gain itself. The Crypto Basic said a similar test is now forming around the mid-$70,000s. It also referred to a longer-term post-midterm framework that projected a November 2027 base range of $110,000-$120,000.

What to watch

Traders are watching whether bitcoin can hold the $74,000 region and recover $78,000-$80,000. If that happens, The Crypto Basic said $100,000 would be the first psychological hurdle before a conditional $110,000-$115,000 range tied to a repeat of the 2023 advance. On the downside, a break below $73,400-$73,600 would weaken the rebound case, while Crypto Daily pointed to $69,000 as a possible next stop near the 200-week SMA. Coinpedia identified $65,813 as the key level for its Elliott Wave view, with $59,270 next if that fails. Crypto Daily also said the weekly candle needs to close back above the 50-week SMA to keep the bull-market structure intact.

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