Bitcoin slips below $74,000 as hot October CPI lifts Fed hike odds

What happened

US consumer prices climbed faster than economists expected in October, and bitcoin dropped below $74,000 as traders moved to price in another Federal Reserve rate increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% monthly gain in headline CPI, against forecasts of 0.3%, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third straight month versus a 0.2% consensus. Crypto.news put bitcoin at about $73,784 on November 10, roughly 1% lower over 24 hours after an intraday peak near $75,500.

The decline extended an already poor stretch for the largest cryptocurrency, which was down about 4.5% over seven days and more than 11% over 30 days. Roughly $200 million of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated within five minutes of the release, according to the Crypto.news report. Coinpedia, writing before the data landed, noted that bitcoin had started November near $81,195 and had been unable to hold above $75,000.

The inflation report carried an unusual gap. Because October 2025 price data was not gathered during a 43-day government shutdown, the BLS did not publish a year-over-year inflation rate, leaving traders to work from estimates in the roughly 3.6% to 4.0% range, Coinpedia reported.

Why it matters

The print matters mainly for what it implies about Federal Reserve policy. Reuters reported that financial markets had fully priced a 25 basis point increase at the December 9 meeting, which would lift the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25% from 3.75%-4.00%. Coinpedia, citing market pricing ahead of the release, had put the probability of such a move at 84%. Higher policy rates generally make yield-bearing assets more appealing and can dampen appetite for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. The argument for tightening was reinforced by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said earlier on November 10 that a 50 basis point increase deserved consideration if inflation stayed elevated, and by October payrolls growth of 165,000 jobs.

What the data shows

Inside the CPI report, shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase in prices. Food was up 0.5%, while energy advanced 0.7%, a far smaller gain than September's 5.2% jump. Headline inflation also slowed from 0.6% in September, though the October reading still exceeded expectations. Alongside the inflation data, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds kept bleeding. Crypto.news reported about $1.28 billion of net withdrawals from US spot bitcoin funds between November 2 and November 6, including roughly $1.21 billion from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, while Fidelity's FBTC took in $93.1 million. Another $201 million left on November 9, with $213.2 million pulled from IBIT. Coinpedia put total net outflows since the start of November at $2.20 billion.

Background

Attention has shifted to where bitcoin might find a floor. BRN analysts flagged $73,000 as a critical level, warning that a daily close beneath it could open the way toward $70,000. Bitget Wallet analysts described the $73,000-$74,000 band as immediate support, with a decisive break risking a slide to $68,000, while Bitfire Research had earlier identified $74,400-$75,000 as territory buyers needed to defend. Hilbert Group chief investment officer Russell Thompson warned on November 9 that a drop below $71,900 could eventually expose $65,000, especially if weakness in technology shares forces leveraged holders to cut positions. On the upside, analysts said bitcoin would need to reclaim $80,000 and show stronger spot demand before a durable recovery could take shape. Daan Crypto Trades pointed to the $72,000-$75,000 zone, where the 0.5 Fibonacci level sits near $74,974 and the next support around $72,040 is close to the 0.618 level, alongside the 200-day moving average and the Bull Market Support Band. Bitfinex analysts said the earlier rebound toward $80,000 had leaned heavily on leveraged futures while direct spot buying stayed thin.

What to watch

Two scheduled releases could shape the next move: October producer prices on November 13 and the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on November 18, ahead of the December 9 decision. Traders will also watch whether bitcoin registers a daily close below $73,000 and whether ETF outflows continue, since sustained redemptions would remove a source of demand that had supported prices earlier in the year.

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