Schiff calls bitcoin a long-term bear market as price slips under $69K

What happened

Bitcoin slipped below $69,000 in trading reported on Nov. 13, the first time since August, and touched a low near $68,530 during a broad risk-asset selloff, according to Crypto Daily and ZyCrypto. Crypto Daily reported a nearly 7% one-day decline; ZyCrypto said the asset later traded around $68,870 and was down 9.2% over the previous week.

Peter Schiff, the economist and long-standing bitcoin critic, responded by saying that bitcoin trading below its November 2021 price indicated a long-term bear market, according to Crypto Daily and ZyCrypto. ZyCrypto reported that in a podcast aired Thursday, he also warned bitcoin could fall below $10,000 and argued the asset had failed to gain traction despite political support and institutional adoption.

In a Nov. 14 X post reported by Crypto.news, Schiff went further, describing the decline as a collapse gathering steam and saying he expected momentum to pick up once bitcoin broke $50,000. He suggested that a break below that level could lead to a rapid return to prices last seen in the 2022 bear market, including a possible move below $16,500 before the end of 2026.

The drop coincided with hot inflation data, a firm US dollar and turmoil in the AI trade after Jensen Huang resigned from Nvidia, Crypto Daily reported. It said about $150 billion left crypto markets in 48 hours, ether slipped to around $1,913, and MSCI plans to remove Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin buyer, from its global indexes after the Nov. 30 rebalance.

Why it matters

Schiff's bear-market call lands at a moment when bitcoin is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which Crypto Daily placed near $78,000 and $76,000 respectively, and is down about 33% over a year. The debate matters because Strategy, the largest corporate holder, is facing an index removal and because other analysts see the $68,000 area as a possible buying zone. Crypto Daily reported that MSCI's planned removal weighed on bitcoin and that Strategy shares fell 7.84%; Crypto.news reported that Doctor Profit identified $68,000 as a buying area and Michaël van de Poppe said he bought during the Nov. 13 decline.

What the data shows

Crypto.news calculated that applying Schiff's $50,000 threshold to Strategy's disclosed balance would value its bitcoin at about $42.52 billion, while $16,500 would value it near $14.03 billion, roughly $50.13 billion below the reported purchase cost. Those figures assume holdings are unchanged and exclude cash, other assets, debt and preferred securities.

Crypto.news reported bitcoin around $67,200 in market data displayed during its reporting, meaning a fall to $50,000 would require a further drop of about 25.6%, while $16,500 would represent a decline of roughly 75.4%. Crypto Daily said the nearest support was around $63,000, with a clean break opening the way toward $59,000; overhead resistance was around $75,000, just below the 200-day average, and a bigger test sat near $80,000. It also said the daily RSI was near 25, an oversold reading, while MACD remained below its signal line.

Background

Schiff has repeatedly warned during the downturn. Crypto.news reported that on Nov. 10 he urged investors to sell after bitcoin struggled below $75,000 even as US equities rose, with the S&P 500 up 2.35% and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.74% on Nov. 9. Strategy, which trades on Nasdaq under MSTR, disclosed 850,364 BTC as of Nov. 8, acquired for $64.16 billion at an average price of $75,456, including fees and expenses. It bought another 1,036 BTC for $81.9 million during Nov. 2, 8 at an average of $79,012 and reported a $4.77 billion reserve for preferred dividends and debt interest plus $146.2 million in general dollar cash.

What is still unclear

Schiff did not attach a probability to the $16,500 forecast or provide a valuation model supporting the target, Crypto.news reported. The reports differ on the exact reference price, Crypto.news cited about $67,200, while ZyCrypto cited $68,870, so the percentage moves depend on the snapshot used.

What to watch

Traders are watching whether bitcoin can hold the $68,000 area and the $63,000 support cited by Crypto Daily. A reclaim of $75,000 and then $80,000 would weaken the bearish case, while a break lower could expose $65,000 or $59,000, according to the reports. Strategy's removal from MSCI indexes after the Nov. 30 rebalance, fresh inflation data and further swings in AI-related stocks are also potential catalysts.

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